The dollar fell as the market saw a higher probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week rather than 25 basis points. LSEG Refinitiv data shows that the market now sees a probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points close to 70%. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in the report: "I remain convinced that a 25 basis point cut would be the best option as the current economic data is not worrisome. However, the...
Even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points this week, the dollar will struggle to achieve a sustained recovery, according to MUFJ. Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG, said in a note that even if the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, it is likely to cut rates further at future meetings, especially if the labor market continues to weaken. That means "people may still think it is only a matter of time before the Fed needs to accelerate the pace of rate cuts," he said....
The dollar weakened in Asian trading on Monday as traders increasingly bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week. The dollar's decline boosted major currencies such as the yen, which rose to its highest level since July 2023. After weeks of debate over whether the Federal Reserve will kick-start its easing by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, traders are leaning towards the latter option.
On September 14th, Goldman Sachs analysts said they still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and will cut rates at every meeting for the rest of the year (November and December). In contrast, speculation about a deeper rate cut by the Federal Reserve has resurfaced. Dudley, the former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, said on Thursday that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week is very high...
The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut next week from the Fed priced into swaps rose slightly after the Wall Street Journal reported that policymakers were considering whether to cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The September OIS contract fell about 3 basis points to an intraday low of around 5.04%, corresponding to a September meeting rate cut of about 28 basis points, towards the midpoint of Wednesday's range; the corresponding rate cut by Wednesday's close was 26 basis points....
Traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next week and expect a total of 100 basis points this year.